Overview
- The Parliamentary Budget Office projects a $68.5 billion federal deficit this year and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which Interim PBO Jason Jacques called shocking and unsustainable.
- Debt service charges are expected to exceed $55 billion this year and could reach about $82.4 billion by 2030, squeezing room for other priorities.
- Independent analyses that factor in unimplemented platform promises, especially higher defence outlays, estimate much larger shortfalls, including roughly $92.2 billion this year and about $343–$360 billion cumulatively over four years.
- The Business Council of Canada warns of an investment crisis and urges clear fiscal anchors, year-over-year deficit reductions, matched funding for any new permanent programs, and strict oversight if operating and capital budgets are split.
- PBO officials told senators the borrowing cap may need revisiting depending on Budget 2025, as projections point to weaker nominal GDP and higher planned borrowing.