Overview
- The Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) published a modelling update on Thursday that shows the cabinet’s June stikstof package plus existing measures cut agricultural ammonia by about 40% versus 2019 and leave a shortfall versus the roughly 42% target.
- The PBL says that unless additional, clearly specified measures are implemented and work in practice, the remaining gap would likely require a forced reduction of 5–10% in dierrechten, meaning fewer permitted animals for some farms.
- Minister Jaimi van Essen responded that the government aims to avoid a generic cut and will tighten and deliver further measures and farmer support from the roughly €20 billion envelope to close the gap.
- Nature organisations welcomed the PBL’s confirmation that the package is necessary but warned it is the minimum needed and that recovery at the most sensitive sites is limited, with only 10 to 14 of 120 areas fully dropping below harmful deposition levels in the PBL’s scenario.
- The PBL warns the plan demands near-maximal effort from farmers and the state, highlights execution and monitoring risks for area-by-area legal certainty, and says timely use of funds and clear rules on measures such as manure spreading will determine whether targets are met or compulsory cuts become unavoidable.