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Paz Victory Revives Guarded Optimism for Opening Bolivia’s Vast Lithium

Investor confidence hinges on early decisions over contracts, legal limits, technology.

Overview

  • President-elect Rodrigo Paz, a centrist, signaled a more investor-friendly approach and will assume office on November 8.
  • He plans to scrutinize 2023 lithium agreements with China’s CATL and Russia’s Rosatom that were blocked in Congress, raising both opportunities and jitters among prospective bidders.
  • A law reserving lithium extraction to the state remains the biggest barrier, and any change would require constitutional reform or a referendum that Paz has not yet endorsed.
  • Production and expertise lag as YLB’s first plant yielded 2,000 metric tons and $15.6 million last year, with Bolivia’s brines posing technical challenges that undercut traditional evaporation methods.
  • A newly center-right-leaning legislature could speed investor-friendly rules, while Washington signaled interest as Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated Paz and flagged potential bilateral investment.