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PayPal Plunges After Q4 Miss, Weak 2026 Outlook and CEO Change

A 1% pace in higher‑margin branded checkout reinforced concerns about competitive pressure.

Overview

  • PayPal reported fourth‑quarter revenue of $8.68 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.23, both below Wall Street estimates, with total payment volume up 6% FX‑neutral to $475.1 billion.
  • Management forecast 2026 adjusted profit to range from a low‑single‑digit decline to a slight increase, far short of roughly 8% growth expected by analysts.
  • The board replaced CEO Alex Chriss, naming HP’s Enrique Lores as chief executive effective March 1, with CFO Jamie Miller serving as interim and citing an unsatisfactory pace of change.
  • Shares fell about 17%–18% to roughly $42, cutting market value to around $40 billion and leaving PayPal worth less than former parent eBay for the first time since their 2015 split.
  • The company introduced a $0.14 quarterly dividend and continued buybacks, while saying AI‑driven agentic commerce and checkout upgrades are unlikely to deliver material returns until around fiscal 2027.