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Pay-As-You-Go Triggers $45 Billion Medicare Cut Next Year as Medicaid Work Rules Start

Congress faces pressure to waive PAYGO to prevent mandatory Medicare cuts next fiscal year

FILE - President Lyndon B. Johnson uses the last of many pens to complete the signing of the Medicare Bill into law at the Truman Library in Independence, Missouri, July 30, 1965, with former President Harry S. Truman at his side. At rear are Lady Bird Johnson, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and former first lady Bess Truman. (AP Photo, File)
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: Care workers with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) participate in a living cemetery protest at the US Capitol June 23, 2025 in Washington, DC.
In this image taken from video, Amanda Hinton speaks about work requirements for Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program during an interview, Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at the Samaritan Center food pantry in Jefferson City, Mo. (AP Photo/David A. Lieb)
FILE - President Donald Trump signs his signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, July 4, 2025, in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Overview

  • The federal budget law enacted in July adds work requirements and tighter eligibility rules for Medicaid enrollees beginning this year
  • Implementation of new Medicare Savings Program regulations that would ease premiums and cost-sharing for low-income beneficiaries has been postponed
  • Congressional Budget Office analysis shows the bill increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion over ten years, activating sequestration under the PAYGO Act If OMB’s forthcoming score matches the CBO’s, Medicare would incur an estimated $45 billion cut in fiscal 2026, with reductions capped at 4 percent annually
  • Any sequestration beyond the 4 percent cap would fall on other direct spending items—including defense, education, housing and national parks—unless Congress enacts another PAYGO waiver