Overview

• Recent polling shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary
• President Trump has not committed to endorsing either candidate, and his backing could sway both the primary and general election dynamics
• Former Representative Colin Allred entered the Democratic Senate race on July 1, signaling a potential opening for Democrats if Paxton wins the nomination
• Analysts warn a Paxton nomination could force Republicans to spend up to $250 million on Texas media markets to defend the seat, diverting resources from other contests
• Texas’s rapid urban growth and economic diversification are reshaping its electorate, making statewide races increasingly competitive