Overview

• A Texas Southern University poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn 43 percent to 34 percent among likely Republican primary voters with 23 percent undecided.
• Cornyn’s campaign has launched four digital ads accusing Paxton of using state grant money to fund organizations perceived as progressive.
• In a hypothetical three-way race including Rep. Wesley Hunt, Paxton leads with 34 percent support compared to Cornyn’s 27 percent and Hunt’s 15 percent.
• Nearly half of Republican voters say a Trump endorsement would influence their choice, but former President Trump has not yet backed either candidate.
• Analysts view the primary as a proxy battle between establishment and hardline factions and as a factor that could affect Texas’s competitiveness in the 2026 general election.