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Paul Skenes Seeks First Win Since May as Pirates Host Reds

Odd personal results have pushed models toward a low-scoring projection due to Skenes’ high strikeout rate, dominance versus Cincinnati, the Reds’ weak offense.

Overview

  • Skenes has not recorded a personal win since May 12 and is listed 6-7 with a 2.86 ERA heading into the June 26 start against Cincinnati.
  • Despite the winless stretch, he has posted multiple quality starts, a roughly 30% strikeout rate, and has routinely worked deep into games with high pitch counts.
  • Skenes owns strong career numbers vs. the Reds, going 5-0 with about a 0.6 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 34 innings, a split that underpins optimistic projections for him tonight.
  • Cincinnati will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has limited runs recently, and bettors and models cite the Reds’ poor offense and park effects when favoring unders and Skenes strikeout props.
  • Analysts note the streak reflects poor Pirates run support and bullpen outcomes more than Skenes’ pitching; a small drop in his fastball velocity has been flagged, so the bullpen and offense will likely decide whether the streak ends.