Overview

• As of Tuesday, the line sits at Patriots -5.5 with a moneyline around New England -250 and Carolina +250, and the total near 43.5.
• More tickets are on Carolina but more money is on New England, a classic Pros vs. Joes pattern reported by PFF, Pregame.com and BetMGM.
• The spread opened closer to Patriots -4.5 and has moved toward -5.5 as heavier bets arrived during the week.
• Carolina and New England are both 1-2, with the Panthers coming off a 30-0 win over Atlanta and the Patriots exiting a loss to Pittsburgh.
• Analytics cited in coverage favor Carolina — including a stronger SRS rating and defensive EPA — while PFF grades highlight Patriots offensive line and tackling issues, and CB Christian Gonzalez’s status remains uncertain.