Overview
- New England enters Sunday at 11-3 atop the AFC East, and a win in Baltimore would secure its first postseason berth since 2021.
- The Athletic’s simulator pegs the Patriots’ No. 1 seed probability around 10–11%, jumping to roughly 40% if they beat the Ravens and the Broncos lose to the Jaguars.
- Division odds swing on Sunday’s outcome, rising to about 82% with a Patriots victory and slipping to about 65% with a loss, per The Athletic’s model.
- Denver sits 12-2 with key tiebreaker advantages over New England, leaving the Patriots likely needing the Broncos to drop two of their final three to take the top seed even if New England wins out.
- New England can also clinch a playoff spot this week without a win if Houston loses to Las Vegas or Indianapolis loses to San Francisco.