Overview

• With four days left, the House-passed clean continuing resolution is stalled in the Senate, which needs 60 votes as Democrats push to extend ACA premium tax credits and reverse recent Medicaid cuts.
• President Donald Trump canceled talks with Democratic leaders and said he will not compromise, with prediction markets now pricing roughly two-thirds odds of a shutdown starting Oct. 1.
• The Office of Management and Budget told agencies to prepare reduction-in-force notices for programs losing discretionary funding or deemed inconsistent with White House priorities, a step Democrats called intimidation that analysts say could face legal challenges.
• States and contractors are activating contingency plans, with Massachusetts warning of potential payroll and grant interruptions and industry groups forecasting suspended work, cash-flow strain and layoffs at smaller firms.
• A lapse would likely close or curtail national parks, slow passport processing and strain airport operations even as Social Security and VA health care continue, and it could delay key economic reports such as next week’s jobs data.