Overview
- Prediction markets put the odds of a partial shutdown around 75%, with some platforms higher, and roughly $13.3 million wagered as the deadline approaches.
- Six of the twelve annual spending bills are already law, narrowing the scope compared with last year’s full shutdown, and DHS retains about $178 billion in reserves to sustain most operations.
- The House is on recess, so any Senate changes would require a recall for reapproval, compressing the timeline before funding lapses at 12:01 a.m. ET Saturday.
- If funding lapses, affected agencies plan furloughs for nonessential staff as essential workers continue without immediate pay, while Social Security and Medicare generally continue.
- Bitcoin trades near $89,000 and spot ETFs saw about $1.33 billion in weekly outflows, as analysts also note a historical 60% rate of last‑minute shutdown resolutions.