Overview
- The Canadian Press decision desk and multiple outlets projected the Parti Québécois will lead the next Quebec government after voters cast ballots on Monday, Oct. 5.
- Early returns left some seats uncalled and point to a likely minority PQ government with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as premier-designate.
- St‑Pierre Plamondon has pledged a referendum on independence but says it will not be held while President Trump remains in office, placing the vote no earlier than 2029.
- The Quebec Conservatives scored a breakthrough with leader Éric Duhaime elected, the CAQ suffered heavy losses, and the Liberals looked set to hold many seats as the main federalist alternative.
- Support for outright independence remains near 30 percent and first-past-the-post vote-splitting helped convert a roughly 29–30 percent PQ vote share into outsized seat gains, a result that could produce tense federal–provincial negotiations over constitutional and policy moves such as cutting temporary immigration and abolishing the lieutenant-governor's role.