Overview
- Polls show the Parti Québécois leading on election day Monday and positioned to win enough seats to form government thanks to a split federalist vote.
- Leader Paul St‑Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec independence during a first mandate but has said it will not take place while President Trump remains in office.
- Public support for independence remains near 30 percent, yet Quebec’s first‑past‑the‑post system and geographically concentrated PQ support could still produce a legislative majority.
- Business groups and minority communities report anxiety that a PQ government and a promised referendum could chill investment, slow immigration and raise borrowing costs for the province.
- Next to watch are final seat counts and whether the PQ pursues changes to the lieutenant governor’s role or other measures that could trigger federal‑provincial and constitutional disputes given Quebec’s two past referenda in 1980 and 1995.