Overview
- Late polling on Oct. 2 shows the Parti Québécois leading francophone voters and positioned to convert that lead into a possible majority in the Oct. 5 election.
- The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec imploded in the final days after reports that party operatives staged a scheme to create the impression of U.S. election interference, a scandal that has badly damaged leader Christine Fréchette’s campaign.
- The Quebec Liberals look set to become the Official Opposition but remain weak with francophone voters because of recent financing controversies and low name recognition for leader Charles Milliard.
- Éric Duhaime’s Quebec Conservative Party is surging in regions such as Quebec City and Beauce and appears likely to win enough seats to obtain official party status, altering the shape of the opposition.
- A PQ government would bring the sovereignty question back to the fore with a pledge to hold a referendum after President Trump leaves office in 2029, while First Nations leaders demand meaningful consultation and warn they will not accept a unilateral process.