Overview
- Polls and prediction markets in late September show the Parti Québécois leading as Quebec heads to the Oct. 5 provincial vote, making Paul St‑Pierre Plamondon the likeliest next premier.
- St‑Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum on independence but has said he will not trigger one while President Donald Trump remains in office, effectively deferring any vote until at least 2029.
- Public backing for outright independence remains low at about 30 percent or less in recent surveys, so the PQ’s strength reflects voter anger with the incumbent government rather than a surge in separatist sentiment.
- The governing Coalition Avenir Québec has lost ground in the campaign on cost of living, housing and health care, helping fragment support and leaving no single anti‑separatist alternative to consolidate the vote.
- Under Quebec’s first‑past‑the‑post system, a party can win a majority of the 127 seats with a plurality of votes; that electoral math explains how the PQ could form a majority government despite limited popular support for secession.