Overview
- An Ifop/Ifop-Fiducial survey conducted online January 5–9 shows Emmanuel Grégoire’s united left list at 30% versus Rachida Dati at 28%, with the gap within the margin of error.
- In modeled second-round matchups, Dati is the favorite in almost all configurations, indicating potential right-leaning vote transfers in the runoff.
- Four candidates are deemed capable of qualifying for the second round, with Pierre-Yves Bournazel at 16% ahead of Sophia Chikirou at 10%.
- Grégoire’s slate brings together Socialists, Greens and Communists, while La France insoumise runs separately under Chikirou.
- On the far right, Sarah Knafo debuts at 8% and RN’s Thierry Mariani is at 7%, with Knafo’s campaign site removing racist public comments and closing contributions after her launch.