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Paris Poll Puts Grégoire at 33% With Knafo Reaching Runoff Threshold

The Cluster 17 survey suggests a potential five-way second round due to right-of-center fragmentation.

Overview

  • Emmanuel Grégoire’s left alliance (PS–Greens–PCF) leads with 33% of voting intentions, up three points from November.
  • Rachida Dati holds at 26% with no progress, a position the pollster says leaves her squeezed between a further-right challenger and a centrist list.
  • Reconquête’s Sarah Knafo rises to 10%, a four-point gain that meets the legal bar for second-round qualification and could enable a quinquangulaire.
  • Pierre-Yves Bournazel stands at 14% and Sophia Chikirou at 12%, while RN’s Thierry Mariani polls at 4% and Lutte ouvrière’s Marielle Saulnier at 1%.
  • Cluster 17 conducted the online survey for POLITICO from Jan. 28–31 among 1,104 registered Paris voters, with a reported margin of error of roughly 1.5–2.8 points.