Overview
- An Ifop-Fiducial poll for L’Opinion and Sud Radio (fielded Jan 5–9) shows the united left at 30%, Rachida Dati at 28%, Pierre‑Yves Bournazel at 16%, Sophia Chikirou at 10%, Sarah Knafo at 8% and Thierry Mariani at 7%, within the margin of error.
- A separate Elabe-Berger-Levrault survey for La Tribune Dimanche and BFMTV places the left at 33% and Dati at 26%, with Bournazel at 16%, Chikirou at 11%, Knafo between 8% and 9% and Mariani at 5%, keeping four lists near or above the 10% runoff threshold.
- Modeling published by l’Opinion indicates Dati would be favored in most second‑round scenarios despite trailing slightly in first‑round voting intention.
- Knafo, newly announced as Reconquête’s candidate, launched her ground campaign in the 16th arrondissement after her team removed racist comments posted on her campaign site.
- Bournazel, backed by Horizons with support from Renaissance figures, presents a centrist alternative positioned at 16% and argues he can reach a decisive runoff in the two‑round municipal system.