Overview
- The Paraná Pesquisas survey released Wednesday, October 21, reports Lorenzo Pazolini at 52.4% and Ricardo Ferraço at 39.8% with 1,300 interviews and a ±2.7 point margin of error.
- When Paraná Pesquisas excludes blank, null and undecided answers it gives Pazolini 56.8% of valid votes versus Ferraço 43.2%, increasing the reported lead.
- A Realtime Big Data poll published October 20 finds a much smaller gap of 46% for Pazolini and 43% for Ferraço with a ±2 point margin of error, which the institute says puts the race inside the margin and technically tied.
- Poll differences stem from sample size, interview dates and how institutes treat blank or undecided responses; earlier Quaest results also showed a narrower Pazolini lead, illustrating the volatility of late measurements.
- The runoff dynamics still hinge on first-round transfers and turnout because Pazolini fell just short of victory on October 4 with 49.65% of valid first-round votes while Ferraço had 34.06% and Helder Salomão 15.32%, so voter moves in the final days will decide the outcome.