Overview
- Rep. Chris Pappas enters Tuesday's Sept. 8 primary as the favorite but faces a narrower race than expected after a late surge by Karishma Manzur.
- Karishma Manzur has energized younger progressive voters with attacks on Pappas’ past ties to AIPAC and criticisms of U.S.-Israel policy, prompting pushback from local Jewish groups.
- Pappas has softened his foreign policy messaging during the primary, publicly criticizing the Netanyahu government, voting “present” on Rep. Thomas Massie’s amendment to cut off aid to Israel, and downplaying past appearances tied to AIPAC.
- Polling is volatile: an Aug. 20–24 University of New Hampshire poll showed Pappas’ lead shrinking to the mid-teens while other surveys show larger margins, and nonpartisan handicappers have moved the general election toward a toss-up.
- If Pappas wins the nomination, the likely November match-up with John E. Sununu is now seen as highly competitive because Sununu’s strong name recognition and independent appeal could win moderates and independents.