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Palantir’s Soaring Outlook Tests a Skeptical Market

Investors weigh fast growth against rich valuation under rising geopolitical risk.

Overview

  • Palantir shares sit well below their late‑2025 peak as buyers and sellers debate how to price the company’s rapid expansion and lofty multiples.
  • Management guides 2026 revenue to $7.18–$7.20 billion, roughly 61% growth, after a quarter that posted 70% sales growth and a record “rule of 40” score that blends growth with profit strength.
  • Commercial momentum is building as U.S. enterprise revenue jumped triple digits, Stellantis renewed and expanded a five‑year deal to use Foundry and AIP, and short AIP bootcamps move customers from trials to production in days.
  • Government work remains a core engine with Palantir’s Maven AI designated a long‑term Pentagon program and a U.S. Navy contract worth up to $448 million to support shipbuilding operations.
  • Risk has risen after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps labeled Palantir a “legitimate target,” even as some on Wall Street, including UBS with a $200 target and PEG-based views, argue the stock can still rise on execution.