Overview
- Q3 revenue rose 63% year over year to $1.18 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.21, topping consensus on both metrics.
- Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $4.396 billion–$4.4 billion and set Q4 revenue at $1.327 billion–$1.331 billion, implying robust profitability.
- Contract momentum accelerated with $2.76 billion in total contract value closed, up 151% year over year, as U.S. commercial sales grew 121% and U.S. government revenue increased 52%.
- Despite the beat, shares fell roughly 12%–15% in the days after the report, and a filing showed Michael Burry’s Scion held put options on 5 million shares that surfaced around the same time.
- Valuation remains the focal concern with an estimated forward price-to-sales near 110 and a largely Hold analyst consensus carrying an average price target near $187.87.