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Palantir’s AIP-Fueled Surge Meets Wall Street Valuation Doubts

Investors weigh record bookings versus the steep growth required for outsized market‑cap scenarios.

Overview

  • Palantir closed a record $2.76 billion in total contract value, up 151% year over year, and raised full‑year guidance for revenue, adjusted operating income, and free cash flow.
  • The company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform remains the growth engine as recent results showed triple‑digit U.S. commercial revenue gains alongside double‑digit growth in U.S. government sales.
  • Shares have soared 167% in 2023, 341% in 2024, and about 120% so far in 2025, yet many analysts maintain hold ratings due to valuation concerns.
  • With roughly 530 U.S. commercial customers, management and observers point to a sizable runway for further adoption of its AI‑driven software.
  • Coverage discusses a 2030 $1 trillion valuation as a scenario that would require sustained high growth and margins, with one analysis modeling revenue of $40.8 billion and profits of $16.3 billion under aggressive assumptions.