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Palantir’s AI Rally Faces Fresh Skepticism With $50 Target From RBC

A cash-rich growth story now collides with record valuation multiples.

Overview

  • Shares have jumped 134% in 2025 and more than 2,000% since AIP’s April 2023 debut, lifting market value from about $16 billion to roughly $422 billion.
  • In Q3, revenue rose 63% year over year and EPS increased 200%, marking a ninth straight quarter of accelerating growth as U.S. commercial sales climbed 121%; guidance calls for at least 61% revenue growth.
  • Over the last 12 months, Palantir generated about $3.9 billion in revenue and $1.8 billion in free cash flow, a margin near 47%.
  • Valuation remains extreme at roughly 244 times this year’s expected earnings, 96 times expected sales, and about 109 times trailing revenue, compared with Nvidia near 24 times sales.
  • RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria set a $50 price target for 2026, implying about 72% downside from Dec. 4 levels, underscoring concerns about how much growth the current price assumes.