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Palantir Lifts Outlook After Q3 Beat as Shares Slide on Lofty Valuation

Results were propelled by sharp gains across U.S. government contracts alongside surging commercial demand.

Overview

  • Palantir posted Q3 revenue of $1.18 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.21, topping estimates, and guided Q4 sales to about $1.33 billion with full‑year revenue near $4.4 billion and free cash flow of $1.9–$2.1 billion.
  • U.S. commercial revenue jumped 121% to $397 million and U.S. government revenue rose 52% to $486 million, contributing to a 63% year‑over‑year increase in total sales.
  • Shares fell 6%–9% on Tuesday after an initial pop, with several outlets citing concerns over a forward P/E in the 200s that left the stock vulnerable after a steep year‑to‑date rally.
  • Analyst views diverged, with Jefferies maintaining an underperform and warning on valuation, while Wedbush reiterated an Outperform at $230 and Bank of America raised its target to $255.
  • Investor positioning added to volatility as reports highlighted large bearish put bets tied to Palantir and a reduction in holdings by Ark Invest, alongside the company’s new UAE joint venture, Aither, with Dubai Holding.