Overview

• Bloomberg data shared by Finance Minister’s adviser Khurram Shehzad ranks Pakistan second to Türkiye for the steepest improvement in emerging‑market default risk.
• The CDS‑implied sovereign default probability declined by roughly 2,200 basis points between June 2024 and September 2025.
• Pakistan was the only country in the Bloomberg emerging‑market sample to post consistent quarter‑by‑quarter improvement over the past year.
• Officials attribute the decline to macroeconomic stabilization, structural reforms, timely debt servicing, adherence to the IMF program, and supportive moves by S&P, Fitch and Moody’s.
• Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb recently said IMF talks were heading in the right direction, as Pakistan’s improvement outpaced peers such as South Africa and El Salvador while countries including Argentina, Egypt and Nigeria saw rising risk.