Overview

• Bloomberg data cited by Finance Minister’s adviser Khurram Shehzad shows Pakistan’s CDS‑implied default probability declined 22% from June 2024 to September 2025.
• The sovereign risk gauge dropped by nearly 2,200 basis points over the period, marking one of the steepest falls among emerging markets.
• Pakistan ranks as the second‑most improved country after Türkiye and was the only economy in the EM sample to post consistent quarterly gains.
• Officials point to macroeconomic stabilization, on‑time debt repayments and recent positive moves by S&P, Fitch and Moody’s as reinforcing factors.
• Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb says IMF negotiations are moving in the right direction, with the government pursuing a higher tax‑to‑GDP ratio near 11%.