Overview
- The rupee posted marginal gains in the inter‑bank market on Monday, finishing around PKR 277.15–277.16 while informal open‑market rates were slightly weaker near PKR 277.85–278.30.
- State Bank of Pakistan data showed SBP‑held foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 11 million to USD 21.40 billion for the week ended September 18, bringing total liquid reserves to USD 26.81 billion.
- Markets reacted to the US rejection of an Iran deal on Monday by pushing Brent crude higher and lifting the dollar to near two‑month highs, which increased downward pressure on regional currencies including the Indian rupee near the 96 level.
- Traders are pricing an elevated chance of further Fed tightening before October, near a 65% probability per CME FedWatch, and investors are watching US PCE inflation and jobs data for guidance.
- The finance minister said Pakistan is moving toward a regulated virtual‑assets framework to use blockchain and tokenisation for lower‑cost remittances, SME finance and sovereign debt, a policy that could slowly change FX inflows over time.