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Pakistan Touts Stabilization, Eyes 3.5% Growth as IMF Deal Nears Board Review

A pending IMF board decision now serves as the key test of Pakistan’s stabilisation narrative.

Overview

  • Pakistan and the IMF have reached a staff-level agreement that would release $1.2 billion after executive board approval, including $1 billion under the EFF and $200 million via the RSF, bringing total disbursements under the two facilities to about $3.3 billion.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb projects 3.5% GDP growth for the current fiscal year after reporting 3% expansion in the last fiscal year.
  • He reports single-digit inflation and a more dovish stance by the State Bank of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange reserves currently cover roughly two and a half months of imports, and all three major rating agencies have upgraded Pakistan’s credit outlook.
  • He highlights 24 joint projects signed in Beijing under CPEC’s second phase and outlines plans for a yuan-denominated green bond this year followed by at least a $1 billion international bond.