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Pakistan Misses IMF-Linked H1 Tax Target, FBR Lowers Annual Goal Before Review

An IMF review next week will assess the shortfall with contingency tax measures on the table.

Overview

  • FBR collected Rs6,154 billion in July–December against a Rs6,489 billion goal, leaving a Rs330–336 billion gap.
  • December receipts reached Rs1,421 billion versus a Rs1,446 billion target, with refunds limited to Rs38 billion and about Rs305 billion in corporate payments arriving on December 31.
  • The annual collection goal has been trimmed to Rs13,979 billion from Rs14,130 billion in consultation with the IMF, and parliamentary assent is still pending.
  • The government has agreed to consider a mini-budget of roughly Rs200 billion and targeted tax hikes, including higher withholding on cash withdrawals and phone usage plus possible sales tax and FED changes, if the gap widens.
  • FBR ordered scrutiny of exporters after a tax-regime shift prompted sharp drops in declared income, drawing complaints from business groups about selective enforcement.