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Pakistan Lifts FY2025 GDP Growth to 3.04% After Q4 Rebound

The upgrade reflects a Q4 jolt tied to electricity-sector adjustments that officials link to subsidies and deflators, prompting calls for clearer methodology.

Overview

  • The National Accounts Committee approved revised FY2024-25 growth at 3.04%, valuing the economy at $407.2 billion with per capita income at $1,812.
  • Quarterly GDP was revised to 1.80% in Q1, 1.94% in Q2, and 2.79% in Q3, with a fresh Q4 estimate of 5.66% that lifted the annual rate.
  • Industry jumped 19.95% in Q4 as electricity, gas and water supply surged 121.38%, which PBS attributed to higher subsidies, deflator effects and a low base.
  • Annual sectoral growth now stands at 1.51% for agriculture, 5.26% for industry and 3.0% for services, with agriculture’s ‘other crops’ revised up to about 19.55%.
  • Media reports and some NAC members flagged data anomalies and a reported undercounting of roughly $11 billion in imports, intensifying scrutiny of the revisions.