Overview

• Pakistan’s Finance Ministry projects September inflation at 3.5–4.5% and says supplies strained by recent floods could briefly lift food costs.
• Brokerage Insight Securities estimates headline inflation near 5.1% for September, rising from 3.0% in August reported by PBS.
• Sharp month-on-month jumps in staples led the surge, with tomatoes up 96.6%, wheat flour up 36.9%, and onions up 34.2%.
• The State Bank of Pakistan has kept its policy rate at 11% as it assesses near-term flood impacts and earlier policy moves.
• Officials cite stabilization under a $7 billion IMF program and a tight June budget, while warning that food supply shocks and higher import volumes pose upside risks.