Overview

• The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported CPI rose 5.6% year on year in September, up from 3.0% in August, with a 2.0% monthly increase and a July–September average of 4.22%.
• The reading exceeded the Finance Ministry’s projected 3.5–4.5% range for the month.
• Non-perishable foods and several non-food categories drove the rise as perishable food became cheaper, with urban tomato prices up 49%, sugar up 29%, and onions down 40%.
• Rural households faced slightly higher inflation than urban areas, with 5.8% year on year versus 5.5% and a sharper monthly increase of 2.8% versus 1.5%.
• Officials cited flood-related supply chain pressures and ongoing assessments of Kharif crop and livestock losses, as the policy rate holds at 11% and talks with the IMF continue on an FY inflation outlook near 7–7.5%.