Overview
- Policymakers left the benchmark rate unchanged for a fourth straight decision, matching expectations from all 10 analysts surveyed.
- The SBP lifted its FY26 growth outlook to the upper half of its 3.25–4.25% range and reported stronger high‑frequency indicators, including industry and crop performance.
- The bank expects inflation to remain above its 5–7% target for a few months before easing into the range next fiscal year, citing risks from global commodities, energy adjustments, and food prices influenced by border disruptions.
- Foreign reserves are projected to reach about $15.5 billion by December 2025 and $17.8 billion by June 2026, with the current account deficit seen within 0–1% of GDP in FY26.
- Since peaking at 22% in 2024, the policy rate has been cut by 1,100 basis points to 11%, and the SBP says the current positive real rate supports price stability as earlier cuts continue to feed through.