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Pakistan Falls Short on Three IMF Benchmarks Ahead of $7 Billion Loan Review

Provincial savings, tax revenues, Tajir Dost scheme receipts all fell short of IMF conditions, with stronger primary surplus, lower deficit boosting prospects for the next $1 billion tranche

Overview

  • Pakistan met only two of five IMF conditions in its USD 7 billion program, missing targets on PKR 1.2 trillion in provincial savings, PKR 12.3 trillion in total revenue and PKR 50 billion from the Tajir Dost trader scheme
  • Four provinces delivered a combined cash surplus of PKR 921 billion, falling PKR 280 billion short of the agreed savings goal
  • Federal net revenues fell PKR 1.2 trillion short of requirements for interest and defense spending, with the gap covered by additional borrowing
  • The government recorded a PKR 2.7 trillion primary budget surplus and cut its fiscal deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP, both outperforming IMF benchmarks
  • Islamabad expects the IMF to approve the next USD 1 billion tranche in the September review based on progress in surplus and deficit reduction