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Pakistan Caps Diesel Margin and Issues Multiple Rapid Fuel Price Changes

A two-month deal to cap the diesel crack spread at about $41–42 a barrel aims to blunt international margin shocks to preserve planned petroleum levy receipts.

Overview

  • The government negotiated a cap on the high-speed diesel (HSD) crack spread with local refineries that cut diesel by about Rs32.63 per litre under an OGRA notification on August 20.
  • Retail prices were adjusted again in quick succession, with a small rise on August 21 and a further increase to petrol Rs341.59 per litre and HSD Rs368.29 per litre effective August 22–24.
  • The federal cabinet approved raising dealer margins by Rs1.34 per litre to Rs9.98 effective September 1 to avert a dealers’ strike and shift some sector costs onto consumers.
  • Officials set a petroleum levy receipts target of Rs1.676 trillion for FY27 based on an average Rs80 per litre levy, limiting room for sustained levy cuts to ease prices.
  • Analysts say the cap will trim recent extraordinary refinery margins by roughly $8–10 per barrel but leave margins above long-term averages and create inventory and valuation losses for OMCs and dealers.