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Pakistan Approves 3.71% Q1 FY2026 Growth as Industry Rebounds

Sector numbers conflict with earlier flood‑loss assessments, prompting scrutiny of measurement.

Overview

  • The National Accounts Committee endorsed GDP growth of 3.71% for July–September, with industry up 9.38%, agriculture 2.89% and services 2.35%.
  • Electricity and gas output rose about 25% and construction roughly 21%, with PBS pointing to higher WAPDA output and a jump in quarterly subsidies.
  • Rice production was reported near 10 million tonnes despite reduced acreage, diverging from Planning Ministry projections shared with the IMF after the summer floods.
  • Information and communication contracted 28.7% as mobile‑company revenues, the sector’s proxy indicator, fell even as IT exports increased.
  • The NAC revised FY2024‑25 growth to 3.09%, while current guidance for FY2025‑26 centers near 4% with the SBP at about 4% and the government target at 4.2%.