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Pagaya Lifts 2025 Outlook After Second GAAP-Profitable Quarter

An AI second‑look model packages partner loans for institutional buyers, limiting direct credit risk.

Overview

  • Q2 revenue rose about 30% year over year as the company notched a second consecutive GAAP-profitable quarter and raised full-year guidance, citing expanding margins and new verticals like auto and point-of-sale loans.
  • Pagaya operates as an AI-driven intermediary with integrations at 31 lenders including SoFi and Klarna, providing a second look on declined applications using broader data than FICO.
  • Approved loans are pooled into asset-backed securities and sold to a network of 145 institutional investors, generating fees for approvals, structuring, and servicing while keeping credit exposure off Pagaya’s balance sheet.
  • Recent bullish summaries highlight approximately $110 million in free cash flow, about $297 million in long-term debt, and reported institutional buying from BlackRock, Vanguard, and Citadel; shares were cited at $39.66 on September 12 with a forward P/E near 13.5.
  • Commentators project multi-year upside under conservative assumptions, though they flag regulatory scrutiny on model fairness, potential dilution, and competition from Upstart as ongoing risks.