Overview
- A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo and released Sept. 29 gives Eduardo Paes a first-round plurality with 34% and Douglas Ruas 25%.
- In head-to-head scenarios Paes tops Ruas 43% to 33% and beats Anthony Garotinho 48% to 20%, according to the same survey.
- The poll interviewed 1,302 voters aged 16 and older between Sept. 25 and 28, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, and is registered at the TSE under protocol RJ-04419/2026.
- Paes’s lead has narrowed in recent Quaest releases, falling from a 26-point advantage on Sept. 8 to a 10-point gap over Ruas in the latest numbers, signaling shifting momentum rather than a settled race.
- If no candidate wins a majority in the first round the result points to a runoff that could prompt new campaign alliances and targeting of undecided voters, who remain a substantial share of the electorate.