Overview

• Eduardo Paes leads all four gubernatorial scenarios with 51% to 61%, including a 51% to 32% edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the only head-to-head tested.
• Paes also tops scenarios featuring Rodrigo Bacellar, Washington Reis and Anthony Garotinho, staying at or above the first-round majority threshold in most lineups.
• For the Senate, Flávio Bolsonaro places first across every scenario with 29% to 32%, while the contest for the second of two seats remains competitive.
• The poll was conducted Oct. 7–8 with 1,500 respondents in Rio de Janeiro state and a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
• Reported rejection rates underscore potential volatility, with Garotinho at 52%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% and Paes at 32%.