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Packers Open as 2.5-Point Road Underdogs at Patriots

An early FanDuel line with The Athletic simulator shows the result would materially alter both teams' playoff probabilities.

Overview

  • FanDuel posted the opening Week 9 line with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road underdog to New England, signaling early market expectations for the matchup.
  • The Patriots beat the Dolphins 24-19 in their most recent game after a 21-6 second-half run, a win that helped New England enter the contest with momentum.
  • Quarterback Drake Maye has produced an 11-touchdown, one-interception stretch with a passer rating above 110 in each of his last four games according to coverage of his recent form.
  • The Athletic’s playoff simulator shows big swings from the outcome: New England’s AFC East odds fall sharply if it loses and Green Bay’s playoff probability rises from roughly 39 percent to about 61 percent with a win.
  • A roster projection in the preview that named edge rusher Micah Parsons as a Packers return is disputed and likely inaccurate because Parsons is widely known as a Dallas Cowboys player, so readers should treat the return timeline in that projection with caution.