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Pacific Low With Cyclone Potential to Drench Parts of Mexico as North Stays Hot

Conagua flags a high-risk Pacific system south of Michoacán and Colima.

Overview

  • Conagua expects the low-pressure area off the Pacific coast to interact with the monsoon trough and deliver intense rainfall in Guerrero and Oaxaca, with strong to very strong showers across the west and south.
  • A separate low-pressure channel over the Gulf, coupled with atmospheric instability, is forecast to produce very strong to locally intense rains in the east and southeast, including the Yucatán Peninsula.
  • Chihuahua and portions of the north and northwest are forecast to remain mostly dry with daytime highs near 35–40 °C.
  • City forecasts show light rain in Mexico City with a high near 21 °C, moderate rain in Cancún with temperatures around 31/25 °C, and clear skies in Monterrey with a 0% chance of rain and a high near 32 °C.
  • Early Saturday minimums are projected to drop to 0–5 °C in mountain zones, with isolated light showers possible in parts of Chihuahua, Sonora, Durango, Guanajuato and Querétaro.