Overnight Storms Target Southeast Texas With Local Flash-Flood Risk

Forecasters cite training cells along a surging cold front capable of extreme short‑duration rain near Houston.

Overview

Slow-moving pre-frontal cells are expected to merge with the advancing cold front overnight across the Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain, producing localized 2–4 inches in 1–3 hours.
Houston, Victoria and Beaumont face the greatest concern for rapid urban flooding where storm mergers and training occur.
Rainfall rates near 2" per hour are possible with brief peaks up to about 1–1.25" in 15 minutes at boundary intersections, with isolated totals up to 5" not ruled out.
Guidance indicates meaningful probabilities for extreme short-duration totals, including HREF signals of 20–30% for 3" in 3 hours and over 50% for 3" in 6 hours.
A few strong storms may occur with damaging winds, isolated hail and a low-confidence brief tornado threat, though SPC considers a severe-weather watch unlikely at 5%.