Overnight Severe Threat Eases in Arkansas With Local Flood Risk and Texas Morning Storm Potential

Overview

• SPC issued Tornado Watch 184 for north-central Arkansas Tuesday evening, warning of a few tornadoes, hail up to 2 inches, and wind gusts to 70 mph through midnight CDT.
• Later updates kept the threat going over north-central and northeast Arkansas as forecasters cited very strong wind shear and low-level spin that could support surface-based storms if coverage increased.
• By early Wednesday, SPC said storms had become disorganized and new watches were unlikely at about a 20% chance, though isolated severe hail, damaging gusts, or a brief tornado could still occur.
• WPC flagged a localized flash-flood risk from central Arkansas into southwest Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with fast-moving storms training along the front capable of 2 to 3 inches of rain that could overwhelm poor drainage areas, including parts of the Memphis metro.
• In the Texas Hill Country and Edwards Plateau near and after dawn, SPC noted isolated strong to severe storms are possible with energy for storms around 2000 J/kg and strong high-altitude winds, and a watch remains possible at about a 40% chance.