Overview

• A report by former Treasury economist Chris Walker estimates that more than 26,000 non-dom taxpayers—over 10% of the total—have departed the UK since April’s abolition of the status.
• The original 2022 Warwick University study forecast only a 0.37% departure rate, a projection now criticised as overly optimistic and incomplete.
• Centre for Economics and Business Research analysis warns that if 25% of non-doms leave the UK, the Treasury’s net revenue gain would fall to zero.
• The Office for Budget Responsibility assigned a very high uncertainty rating to the policy’s revenue costings, flagging significant fiscal risk.
• Italy and Greece have rolled out flat-tax regimes to lure departing non-dom residents, intensifying competition for wealthy taxpayers.