Overview
- Real-money platforms Polymarket and Kalshi price One Battle After Another, Sinners and Marty Supreme as near-certain Best Picture nominees, with Hamnet, Frankenstein and Sentimental Value also highly favored.
- Analysts, including Variety’s Clayton Davis, say Sinners could challenge the all-time single-film nominations record as the Academy introduces its first Best Casting award.
- One Battle After Another sustains precursor momentum, leading Vancouver Film Critics Circle nominations and building on strong showings across guilds and the Golden Globes.
- Acting forecasts center on Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael B. Jordan as likely nominees, with Timothée Chalamet the Best Actor favorite for Marty Supreme in betting markets.
- Nominations will be announced Thursday, Jan. 22 at 5:30 a.m. PT/8:30 a.m. ET by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman, as Warner Bros navigates active takeover bids from Paramount Skydance and Netflix.