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Orange Bowl Quarterfinal: Oregon vs. Texas Tech Opens New Year With Toss-Up Odds

Betting models rate the game even, spotlighting Texas Tech’s turnover edge versus Dante Moore’s passing.

Overview

  • Kickoff is set for noon ET on ESPN at Hard Rock Stadium, with Oregon entering off a first‑round win and Texas Tech coming in off a bye as the winner advances to the Peach Bowl semifinal.
  • Sportsbooks list a tight market around Oregon -2.5 with moneyline prices near Oregon -130 and Texas Tech +115 and a total around 51.5 points.
  • Data firm Dimers ran 10,000 simulations and found a 50% win probability for each team, recommending Texas Tech moneyline (+115) and projecting a 54% chance the Red Raiders cover +2.5.
  • The marquee matchup pits Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, a 3,000‑plus yard passer with elite PFF grades, against a Red Raiders defense led by Nagurski winner Jacob Rodriguez that ranks No. 1 against the run and has generated a nation‑best 31 turnovers with a dangerous pass rush.
  • Player props highlight Texas Tech RB Cameron Dickey as a primary scorer, including +450 to score the first touchdown on Bet365, aligning with Oregon’s season‑long red‑zone defensive struggles that have allowed touchdowns on roughly 70% of trips.