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Oracle’s AI Bet Draws Fresh Buy Rating as Spending Risks Come Into Focus

Investors weigh a $455 billion backlog against the cost of a rapid multicloud expansion.

Overview

  • Baird initiated coverage at Outperform with a $365 price target, arguing Oracle is well positioned to benefit from rising AI infrastructure spend and the shift from training to inference.
  • Oracle reported $455 billion in remaining performance obligations at the end of fiscal Q1 2026, with contracts tied to major AI customers including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, Nvidia, and AMD.
  • The company operates 34 multicloud data centers and plans 37 more by the end of fiscal 2026, after posting a 1,529% year-over-year surge in multicloud database revenue in the first quarter.
  • Management forecasts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue of about $18 billion in fiscal 2026 and $73 billion in fiscal 2028, contingent on converting the backlog into workloads.
  • Shares are up nearly 74% in 2025 with a market value of about $829 billion as of Oct. 6, while Jim Cramer cautioned Oracle may be overspending on data centers but could tap stock or bonds for funding.