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Oracle Slides as Record Cloud Backlog Collides With Cash Burn

Record $638 billion backlog sits under investor scrutiny because of negative free cash flow and a planned $40 billion capital raise ahead of September 10 earnings.

Overview

  • Oracle shares have fallen roughly 25% year-to-date and about 36% over the past 12 months as investors punish financing and cash-flow risks.
  • The company reported fiscal 2026 revenue up about 17% with cloud services growing roughly 39% and cloud infrastructure revenue jumping 93% in the fourth quarter.
  • Oracle’s remaining performance obligation, or backlog, reached about $638 billion, which represents contracted future revenue the company expects to deliver under existing deals.
  • Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was negative about $23.7 billion while capital spending ran near $55.7 billion and total debt rose to roughly $129.5 billion, prompting management to plan roughly $40 billion of new financing including a $20 billion at‑the‑market equity program.
  • Analysts remain divided but many are constructive—some see large upside if earnings reassure markets—while doubts about the multiyear OpenAI arrangement and higher leverage raise the risk of dilution and credit pressure ahead of the September 10 report.